UNITED STATES - The Dice Are Still Rolling - Latest Business & Logistics News

The midterm elections have delivered a landslide victory for the Democrats in the United States. Whether this will fundamentally alter Donald Trump’s approach to domestic and foreign policy remains highly questionable. He is likely to continue governing through executive orders, bypassing Congress whenever possible and obstructing the legislative process. In fact, he had already signalled such intentions well before the midterms.

A Commentary by HaJo Schlobach

A mood of celebration is sweeping through Democratic ranks across the United States. The party exceeded even its own expectations in the midterm elections. Beginning in January 2027, Democrats will command comfortable majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. In doing so, they captured several Republican strongholds that, in some cases, had remained firmly in GOP hands for decades.

The atmosphere among Republicans, and particularly around Donald Trump, is markedly less jubilant. While Trump has acknowledged the defeat, he has carefully distanced himself from any responsibility for the outcome, despite having framed the midterms as a referendum on his presidency. “My name was not on the ballot,” he remarked in an interview with Fox News the day after the election.

Hope Springs Eternal

The Democratic victory has also been welcomed across Europe. In European capitals and in Brussels, many hope it could usher in a more predictable American administration and stronger support for efforts to bring an end to the war in eastern Ukraine.

Yet such hopes may prove overly optimistic. Donald Trump remains Donald Trump, and he is unlikely to abandon the political instincts that have defined his presidency. Executive orders, originally conceived as exceptional instruments to ensure governmental continuity in emergencies, have become a routine tool of governance under his administration. They were never intended to replace the legislative process or serve as the primary mechanism of presidential action.

The same can be said of the presidential veto. Historically designed as a constitutional safeguard, it was not meant to be wielded simply because a president disagrees ideologically with a congressional majority. Trump has openly hinted at becoming “Mr. Veto,” determined to block Democratic legislation in anticipation of a Democratic-controlled Congress. Under such circumstances, hopes in Europe for a swift reversal of his tariff policies may well be disappointed.

Trump’s Foreign Policy Is Likely to Remain Unchanged

Foreign policy presents an even greater challenge. In this area, the U.S. president enjoys considerable constitutional authority and can often act with limited interference from Congress. The House of Representatives possesses only a handful of meaningful levers, most notably the power of the purse. It can restrict or withhold funding, and it may well seek to do so in connection with the war involving Iran and the continued, unconditional financial support for Israel.

When it comes to NATO, the European Union, and Russia’s war against Ukraine, there is little indication that Trump intends to revise his position. He is expected to continue undermining President Zelenskyy, pressure Ukraine toward concessions, and maintain a notably accommodating stance toward Vladimir Putin. Likewise, his scepticism toward both the EU and NATO is unlikely to diminish. Congress has only limited capacity to alter that course.

Where the Dice May Yet Fall

The dice, therefore, have not yet come to rest. They are still rolling.

Much will depend not only on the Democrats but also on the Republican Party itself. Within Democratic ranks, the debate over the party’s direction ahead of the presidential election in two years is far from settled. The challenge for the Democrats will be to avoid internal divisions that could squander the momentum generated by their impressive electoral success.

Republicans, for their part, are already beginning to position themselves for the post-election landscape. Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio are frequently mentioned as the most promising contenders for the Republican presidential nomination. Yet nothing has been decided. American voters are acutely aware of both men’s close association with Trump, and how that connection will be judged remains an open question.

America’s Continuing Search for Itself

The United States is likely to spend the coming years searching for a renewed sense of political identity. As a result, major international initiatives or transformative leadership from Washington may be in short supply.

Nevertheless, for committed Europeans, the clarity of this election result leaves little to be desired. Indirectly, its impact may extend far beyond America’s borders. The outcome could influence nationalist movements across the European Union. The United States has demonstrated that such movements can be challenged successfully at the ballot box.

If that lesson takes hold, it may strengthen the rules-based order in Europe and help slow the forces of political fragmentation advanced by nationalist parties such as Germany’s AfD, France’s National Rally, Austria’s FPÖ, and similar movements elsewhere on the continent. These movements, critics argue, have benefited from varying degrees of support through funding, logistical networks, and disinformation efforts originating from both Washington and Moscow.

The midterms may have changed the political balance in Washington, but they have not determined America’s future course. The final outcome remains uncertain. The dice are still rolling.